Americans Want Small Families, Aren’t Concerned About Declining Birth Rates

An extensive new survey by Population Connection reveals that Americans have an established preference for small family sizes and do not perceive low fertility rates as a problem. Our survey also sheds light on the factors that influence the childbearing decisions of younger Americans — the top impacts being concern over the state of the world and affordability.

The context

The population narrative in today’s media stories revolves predominantly around low fertility rates in high-income countries, with many outlets describing this as a problem or “crisis.” This narrative is grounded in concern that population aging and decline could negatively impact economies, and ignores the countless benefits of reduced population pressure. It also fails to acknowledge the fact that our global population is still growing, and that even many high-income countries with low birth rates are still becoming more populous due to a combination of demographic momentum and immigration.

Previous studies on family size preferences in the Global North have found that people’s “ideal”[1] family size is often higher than actual fertility rates, leading reporters to suggest that many people are having fewer kids than they would like to have.

At Population Connection, we wanted to find out whether “baby bust” worries were also prevalent among the American people, and whether there is in fact a significant gap between US adults’ desired and actual family sizes.

The research

In October 2024, on behalf of Population Connection, research firm Lake Research Partners conducted a mixed-mode online and phone survey of 1,418 US-based adults. Lake Research Partners also held a series of in-person and virtual focus group discussions to dig deeper into people’s thoughts around parenthood.

Respondents were asked nearly 30 questions to gain insights into people’s actual and desired family sizes, and into which factors have had the biggest impacts on their family planning decisions.

While we surveyed adults of all ages, this article focuses on adults under the age of 50, who are commonly considered, in statistical analyses, to be in their reproductive years. To see the full results of the study, broken down by age, generation, gender, and race, visit our website at popconnect.org/fertility-research.

The findings

Most people want a small family, but some feel unable to fulfill their desired family size.

We found that the majority (55%) of participants desire a small family of zero to two kids. Well over half (58%) of respondents said their desired number of children has stayed about the same over time, while 19% said their desired number of children had increased and 20% said their desired number had decreased.

While survey participants were almost evenly split on whether their desired number of children had increased or decreased over time, among focus group participants whose ideal number of children has changed over time, almost all said it had decreased, citing lack of affordability, experiences with difficult pregnancies and/or deliveries, and wariness about the state of the world.

Among women under 50, 39% have the same number of children as their desired number of children, while 45% have fewer than they desire and 15% have more than they desire. Among men under 50, those figures are 34%, 53%, and 13%, respectively. Given that the survey included Gen Z and younger Millennials, it’s to be expected that many of them have not yet started or completed their families and therefore still have fewer children than they desire.

Among survey participants, the most common family size was zero children (49% of respondents had no children), which is significantly higher than the number of respondents who said they desire no children (12%). While this difference can be partly attributed to younger participants not having started childbearing yet, it also suggests that many childless people would like or would have liked to become parents but feel or felt unable to do so.

Mirroring previous studies’ findings, a two-child family was by far the most desired family size, with 34% of respondents preferring this size. Three (20%) and zero (12%) children were more popular desired family sizes than one child (9%). One-child families have been shown to be unpopular by other surveys too, suggesting bias against only children, likely due to debunked yet persistent stereotypes.

People feel limited by the state of the world and affordability.

When asked which factors had a major impact on their ability or decision to have children, the top factors were concern over the state of the world (35% said this had a major impact) and not being able to afford kids/more kids (34% said this had a major impact).

Focus group participants shared these concerns. A Millennial woman with a blended family of five kids said:

“Day care is costly. Education is costly. I’m saving for each one of them for their college education right now. Only two [children] instead of five would have been a lot easier, for financial reasons and just the crazy world we live in.”

Following that same theme, a Gen Z man said:

“No one’s going to want to raise a kid when they’re struggling. They don’t want to bring a kid up when the kid’s going to have to struggle. So, a good economy helps you live a better life, which will help you raise a kid in a better life.”

These top impacts (state of the world and affordability) on people’s ability or decision to have children are followed by mental health (27%), being worried about how laws that restrict abortion and reproductive health care will affect them/their partner during pregnancy (25%), age (25%), there not being enough support for parents in our country (22%), and current work demands and schedule making it difficult (22%).

Survey participants were also asked how much they agree with a variety of statements — close to half of respondents strongly agreed that basics like food and housing cost so much that it forces people to prioritize jobs and income over having children (51% strongly agreed), and that sometimes people want to spend their time, energy, and love doing other things than raising children (49% strongly agreed).

Over a quarter (27%) of respondents strongly agreed that overpopulation and climate change make them uneasy about raising children on a planet that is already in trouble. A slightly smaller proportion (21%) said that overpopulation and climate change make them uneasy about creating another human who will contribute to the destruction of the planet.

Reproductive rights restrictions and not wanting kids also play an important role.

A quarter of respondents (25%) said that worries about how restrictions on abortion and reproductive health care would impact them or their partner during pregnancy have had a major impact on their childbearing decisions. This figure rose to 30% for Gen Z and for women under 50.

Among those who don’t plan on having kids, not wanting them was by far the most important factor (46% said this had a major impact, and 15% said it had ‘somewhat of an impact’), conveying the growing popularity of the childfree choice.

People are more concerned about population growth than low fertility rates.

A statement about falling fertility rates being one of the biggest challenges facing our world received the lowest amount of agreement, with only 17% of total respondents strongly agreeing.

Conversely, nearly half of respondents (45%) said they were ‘very’ to ‘somewhat’ concerned about national population growth, while slightly more than half (51%) were ‘very’ to ‘somewhat’ concerned about global population growth. Only 27% and 22% said they are ‘not concerned at all’ about national and global population growth, respectively, while 24% and 21%, respectively, said they are ‘a little concerned.’

The top cited reasons for concern over population growth were more kids living in poverty (35% said they are most concerned about this impact) and natural resource depletion (30% said they are most concerned about this impact).

The implications

Our survey results suggest that most Americans have a preference for small families, which needs to be acknowledged by policymakers seeking to blindly increase the birth rate for the sake of the economy — especially given all of the policy levers that could be (but haven’t been) implemented in order to maintain a healthy economy.

We also found that some people feel unable to fulfill their desired family size — policymakers’ focus should instead be on reducing the barriers that prevent people from having the number of kids they want. Concern over the state of the world and financial constraints were found to be the most important limiting factors, which is in line with what other surveys have shown. We found that mental health and reproductive rights restrictions are also perceived as a major barrier among younger generations — the latter factor being particularly relevant in light of the hostility of the Trump administration toward sexual and reproductive health and rights.

Slides summarizing key findings and banner tables for all questions and full survey results are available here.

^[1]
Typically, when “ideal” number of children is cited in the media, the data comes from a Gallup poll that asks participants, “What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” This is quite different from asking people how many children they themselves would like to have.

Olivia Nater, onater@popconnect.org