In the News, September 2024

New UN projections released on World Population Day

On World Population Day (July 11), the United Nations Population Division released new data, World Population Prospects 2024, which project a peak of 10.3 billion people in 2084 — slightly lower and earlier than the 10.4 billion peak in 2086 that was projected in the previous revision published in 2022. Like in the 2022 revision, human numbers are expected to stay above 10 billion through the end of the century.

The UN demographers now estimate the likelihood of the population peaking this century at 80%, compared to only 30% a decade ago. The main reason for the slightly earlier and lower peak is lower-than-expected fertility rates in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China. The global fertility rate is now estimated at 2.25 births per woman.

The UN estimates that the populations of 63 countries, including China, Japan, Italy, and Germany, have already peaked. More than 1 in 10 countries, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa, still have very high fertility rates of four or more births per woman. The trajectories in the nine fastest growing countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, and Somalia, will influence the size and timing of the population peak at the global level.

US and other areas hit by extreme heat

Summer temperatures have broken new records across the globe. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, June 2024 was the hottest June ever recorded and the 13th consecutive record-warm month. This has been the hottest summer on record for many US counties too, with some recording over a hundred possible heat-related deaths so far. Las Vegas, Nevada, endured seven consecutive days of temperatures 115°F or higher in July, including an all-time high of 120°F.

Heat deaths reached catastrophic levels in Saudi Arabia, where over 1,300 people collapsed and died during the Hajj, with temperatures in Mecca reaching 125°F on June 17. According to Mexico’s health ministry, as of late June, at least 125 people had died due to excess heat this year. In the south of the country, hundreds of howler monkeys have been recorded falling dead out of trees due to heatstroke. In Greece, several tourists succumbed to extreme heat, while Japan added “most severe” to its existing heatstroke index. The new category applies to people with a core temperature of 40°C (104°F) or higher and an inability to communicate.

Earth 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial era for a whole year

Data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that by July 2024, the world had experienced 12 consecutive months of temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Under the Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to 1.5°C because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that exceeding this threshold will likely lead to very severe climate change impacts.

The 1.5°C target is based on the average temperature of the planet over a 20- or 30-year period, so despite this worrying 12-month streak, it does not yet mean the Paris limit has been exceeded. The IPCC warns, however, that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 in order for us to have a more than 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Unfortunately, emissions are still rising.

Birth control prescriptions down in abortion ban states

A study published in JAMA Network Open revealed that states with abortion bans saw significant declines in the number of birth control prescriptions filled following the Dobbs decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion in June 2022. In the study period after the ruling, in 12 of the states that enacted the most restrictive bans, monthly fills for oral contraceptive pills declined significantly. Texas had the most pronounced decline, at 28%.

The researchers also looked at prescription-fill rates for emergency contraceptives, and found a marked increase starting around December 2021, when the Supreme Court was weighing the Dobbs case, likely due to patient stockpiling in anticipation of abortion restrictions. The fill-rate for emergency contraception peaked in July 2022 (immediately after the ruling), but plummeted a year later. Kentucky saw the biggest decrease, with emergency contraception prescription fills dropping by 78%. The lead author of the study told Mother Jones that the decline in prescriptions for emergency contraception is likely linked to confusion around its legality due to anti-choice groups falsely claiming it causes abortions.

According to the Guttmacher Institute, abortion bans led to the shutdown of 63 clinics in the 14 states with total bans, making it more difficult for many people to access other reproductive health services, including family planning.

High-level UN event in September to chart a better path

World leaders will convene in New York in September for the Summit of the Future — a major UN event that is intended to help set a path toward a more sustainable, prosperous future. In light of the majority of the UN Sustainable Development Goals — including zero poverty and hunger, gender equality, and a healthy environment — being off-target for their 2030 deadline, the Summit will lead to the creation of a new “Pact for the Future” to increase international cooperation toward sustainability and peace and security.

In collaboration with Population Matters and Population Media Center, Population Connection delivered oral statements in two virtual consultation meetings on early versions of the Pact (here and here), urging the inclusion of the need to end population growth through empowering solutions.

Olivia Nater
onater@popconnect.org