New UN population projections: Where are we headed?
Written by Olivia Nater | Published: July 26, 2024
The United Nations recently published a new set of world population estimates and projections. According to the UN demographers, we are still on track for a peak of more than 10 billion in the 2080s, with little change until the end of the century. Let’s take a closer look at the data and what it means for the future.
What are the World Population Prospects?
World Population Prospects 2024 (WPP 2024) was released on World Population Day, July 11. With updates published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) every two to three years, this is the 28th edition, or “revision.” Using data from 1,910 censuses, this latest revision includes population estimates for 237 countries and areas from 1950 until today, as well as projections up to 2100.
Updated milestones
The global population is now estimated at 8.2 billion, and is expected to keep growing for another six decades, peaking at 10.3 billion in 2084, and then gradually declining to around 10.2 billion by 2100. This updated peak is slightly lower and earlier than the 10.4 billion in 2086 projected in the previous revision published in 2022. The 2024 Summary of Results report states that the difference is partly due to lower-than-expected fertility rates in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China (which now has a fertility rate of just 1.01 births per woman).
Like the 2022 revision, the 2024 revision projects we will reach 9 billion in 2037, while the 10 billion milestone is now projected for 2061 — three years later than in the 2022 revision.
Key trends — the shrinkers
The global fertility rate is now 2.25 and is expected to reach the replacement level (2.1) in 2036. More than half of all countries already have below-replacement fertility, while the populations of 63 countries, representing 28 percent of the global population, are estimated to have already peaked. These countries include China, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Spain and Thailand.
China is projected to lose more than half its current population size, dropping from today’s 1.4 billion to 633 million in 2100 — the level it was at in the late 1950s. As the world’s biggest national emitter of greenhouse gases, this shrinkage obviously has positive sustainability implications. Unfortunately, despite the fact that population decline through voluntarily low fertility rates is a welcome development, governments still largely perceive it as a threat to economic growth.
China is among the one-fifth of countries with “ultra-low fertility,” defined as fewer than 1.4 births per woman. The country with the lowest fertility in the world is South Korea, at just 0.73 births per woman, according to UN data. South Korea’s population is also projected to more than halve by the end of the century, to around 22 million from today’s 52 million. The South Korean government has so far spent over $200 billion on financial incentives to increase the birth rate, with little success.
Japan has been shrinking for longer than any other country, having peaked in 2010, based on UN estimates. The latest projections show it declining further from today’s 124 million to 77 million by the end of the century. Japan performs well across a whole range of well-being indicators, demonstrating that with the right investments, population aging and decline are not something to fear.
Key trends — the growers
WPP 2024 shows that in 48 countries and areas, which include around a tenth of the world’s population, populations are projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. This group includes Argentina, Brazil, Denmark, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar, Netherlands, and Türkiye.
In the final group, representing the remaining 126 countries and areas, populations are expected to keep growing beyond 2054, either reaching a peak in the second half of the century, or growing beyond 2100. This group includes some of the world’s most populous countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, as well as those with the highest fertility rates (largely in sub-Saharan Africa), including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Niger and Somalia.
The U.S. already has a below-replacement fertility rate of 1.62 births per woman, and immigration is expected to be the main driver of population growth throughout the rest of the century, leading to an increase from today’s 344 million to 421 million in 2100.
Sub-Saharan Africa stands out from all other regions, as it is expected to grow nearly three-fold, from 1.2 billion today to 3.4 billion (and counting) by century’s end.
What are the implications?
By 2054, Pakistan is projected to become the world’s third most populous country, after India and China, and Nigeria is expected to slide into fifth position, behind the United States. By the end of the century, the U.S. is expected to drop to sixth place, with Nigeria and the DRC projected to be fourth and fifth most populous, respectively.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s rapid growth is worrying because the area also has the highest poverty rates as well as high vulnerability to climate change. Without greater investments in health, education and job creation, the very large and growing cohort of young people in this area faces dire prospects.
WPP 2024 highlights the problem of child marriage and teen pregnancy in high fertility countries — this year alone, an estimated 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 percent of the global total, will be born to mothers under age 18, and around 340,000 to girls less than 15 years old.
The report states,
“The trajectory of population change in this last group of countries and areas will have a major influence on the size and timing of the population peak at the global level.”
In other words, boosting investment in empowering solutions in high-fertility countries, particularly removing barriers to family planning and girls’ education, would not only yield enormous sustainable development benefits, but would also put us on track for a more sustainable global population size. It’s high time for the U.S. to increase its contribution to international family planning — the longer we fail to act, the less we will be able to protect lives and shape our global demographic destiny for the better.