Re: Falling fertility, debt and AI: is the US headed toward a population crisis?

The Guardian ran an article arguing that the declining US birthrate is “a recipe for disaster.” We pushed back with a letter to the editor, which wasn’t published, so we are featuring it here.

We encourage all our members and supporters to make their voices heard! See our media guide for advice on how to do that.

Re: Falling fertility, debt and AI: is the US headed toward a population crisis? (April 19, 2026)

It’s disappointing to see “baby bust” fearmongering in The Guardian. Eduardo Porter’s article leans into all the classic capitalist theories espoused by those who think human populations can and should keep growing forever.

First of all, “diehard Ehrlichians” is an odd name for people who accept that our planet is finite. Diehard cornucopianists like Mr. Porter believe that we can grow and innovate our way out of every problem, citing how “agricultural innovations fed a growing population on limited land.” But these innovations came at tremendous cost to the environment – even the architect of the Green Revolution himself, Norman Borlaug, warned its success would be “ephemeral only” if we failed to rein in human population growth. Meanwhile, hunger is increasing again in large parts of the world.

If it held true that population growth translates into more innovation and progress, surely, at 8.3 billion and counting, we would be seeing some improvement in our environmental crises. The opposite is happening – we are breaching ever more critical planetary boundaries.

Mr. Porter also doesn’t acknowledge that the US dependency ratio is much lower today than it was during the 1960s, when women were on average having more than three children. Yes, population aging brings some socioeconomic challenges, but these are surmountable with available policy levers. The answer is not to attempt to engineer a baby boom, or, as Mr. Porter darkly suggests, to encourage old people to take their own lives. It is not our sheer numbers that predict economic success and welfare. Rather, it is how much governments invest in people. Prioritizing preventive healthcare, quality education, and the eradication of child poverty, and making it easier for immigrants, women, and people with disabilities to enter and stay in the workforce are all key to increasing productivity and reducing dependency.

Sincerely,

Olivia Nater
Communications Manager
Population Connection