Re: The End of Children

The New Yorker recently published a very long and dramatic article about declining birth rates. We sent a letter in response, which wasn’t published, so we are featuring it here.

We encourage all our members and supporters to make their voices heard! See our media guide for advice on how to do that.

Dear Editor,

In his article about low birth rates, Gideon Lewis-Kraus quotes the economist Nicholas Eberstadt as saying that whoever can explain continued fertility decline deserves a Nobel prize. A bit odd, considering that you can just ask people about the factors that influence(d) their childbearing decisions. In fact, there are several published surveys on this topic.

At Population Connection, we recently conducted such a survey, polling 1,400 Americans across the country. When asked which factors had a major impact on their ability or decision to have children, the top factors for adults under 50 were concern over the state of the world (35% said this had a major impact) and not being able to afford [more] kids (34% said this had a major impact). These top factors were followed by mental health (27%) and being worried about how laws that restrict abortion and reproductive health care will affect them or their partner during pregnancy (25%).

For those who don’t plan on having kids, the most important factor by a wide margin was simply not wanting them (46% said this had a major impact).

There’s really no reason to assume a “Children of Men” future, however. When asked how many kids they desire, only 12% of total respondents said they don’t want any. By far the most popular desired family size was two kids.

South Korea is very much an outlier — not all countries are destined to follow in its “ultra-low” fertility footsteps. Governments could help more people achieve their desired family size if they actually worked to remove the aforementioned barriers, by implementing policies that improve social welfare, health, and environmental protection. In the interesting case of South Korea, moderate fertility increase could likely be achieved by phasing out the patriarchal attitudes and customs that penalize mothers so heavily (just ask the women) — pretty ironic that so many men seem to think the answer lies in exacerbating gender inequalities.

Nevertheless, Mr. Lewis-Kraus is right to point out that even Nordic countries with higher gender equity and supportive welfare systems have below-replacement fertility rates. Smaller family sizes have become an established norm across the Global North because they bring many advantages for both parents and children. Governments need to accept that massive baby booms are a thing of the past. And yes, this is a good thing — our current population of 8.2 billion and counting has grossly overshot our planetary boundaries. Our projected trajectory towards a peak of more than 10 billion alongside continued consumption growth is already deeply concerning. Why on [our overcrowded] Earth should we try to aim for an even bigger population? The notion of infinite growth on a finite planet has always been an absurd pipe dream. Instead of fretting over a supposed baby shortage, let’s prioritize a livable future. Declining birth rates will help get us there.

Sincerely,

Olivia Nater
Communications Manager
Population Connection