Re: The Loneliness of the Conservative Pronatalist

The Atlantic recently published an article documenting the conservative pronatalist movement. We sent a letter in response, which wasn’t published, so we are featuring it here.

We encourage all our members and supporters to make their voices heard! See our media guide for advice on how to do that.

Dear Editor,

In his article on the growing conservative pronatalist movement, Marc Novicoff is quick to agree that declining birth rates are a huge problem that needs fixing. He notes that “until recently, the idea that humanity might be growing too slowly would have seemed absurd.” Well, it turns out it’s still absurd. Even though fertility rates are trending downward across the globe, our population is still very much on an upward trajectory. The UN Population Division projects that we will peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s, with no significant decline this century. The combination of overconsumption in wealthy nations and continued population growth at a global level have already led to humanity breaching six of nine critical planetary boundaries. The pronatalists pushing for another baby boom are either completely detached from reality, or believe they are somehow immune to environmental collapse (or both, in the case of Elon Musk). To them, what matters the most is short-term economic gain.

Population aging due to low birth rates does bring socioeconomic challenges, but these can be lessened with available policy levers, such as investments in preventive healthcare, and by making it easier for people who have traditionally been excluded from the workforce (e.g. people with disabilities, immigrants) to find employment.

Mr. Novicoff mentions the potential of pronatalist policies, but even though these can help families in other ways, they aren’t actually effective at significantly increasing the birth rate. Even the Nordic countries with the most generous pro-family policies have below-replacement fertility rates. Governments need to accept that most people in high-income countries have an established preference for small family sizes. As Mr. Novicoff acknowledges, declining fertility is largely a result of women gaining more choices. An undeniably positive development, with the added bonus of helping us chart a path towards sustainability. Fighting low birth rates risks taking us further into “Handmaid’s Tale” and catastrophic environmental degradation territory.

Sincerely,

Olivia Nater
Communications Manager
Population Connection