Human-caused climate change presents an urgent and growing existential risk to life on Earth. By burning fossil fuels and deforesting vast areas, humans have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to levels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years. As a result, the Earth’s average temperature is rising, endangering food security, the availability of fresh water, biodiversity, and human lives. Greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing due to growth in both consumption and population at a global level, combined with governments’ failure to transition economies away from fossil fuels.
The Earth has already warmed by at least 1.1°C relative to pre-industrial times, and governments’ existing pledges put us on track for an increase of 2.6-3.1°C by 2100, which would have disastrous consequences. Limiting the global temperature rise is imperative to humanity’s survival and conserving life on Earth.
Preventing the worst impacts of climate change requires ending the burning of fossil fuels for energy, industry, and transportation. We must also change the way we produce and consume food. Halting deforestation and restoring ecosystems is critical to leveraging carbon storage and sequestration. Phasing out excessive consumption in high-income countries and stabilizing our global population at a sustainable level are key to ending emissions increase too.
High-income areas, including Northern America and Europe, are responsible for the majority of historical emissions, so have a responsibility to lead on climate action and funding.
28x
On average, people living in the United States produce almost 28 times more consumption-based CO2 emissions than people in Nigeria, one of the fastest-growing countries in the world.
10
Just 10 countries/areas are responsible for over two-thirds of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. In descending order of annual emissions, these are China, the United States, India, the group of 27 European Union countries, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Iran and Canada.
Note that some of these are not particularly wealthy countries — their high national emissions are due to their large populations.
The biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions is energy use in industry, responsible for around a quarter of global emissions, followed by agriculture and land use (18.4%), energy use in buildings (17.5%), and transport (16.2%).
The food system as a whole — including refrigeration, food processing, packaging, and transport — accounts for around one-quarter to one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Livestock farming in particular is responsible for more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions from food, and is the main driver of tropical deforestation, making the growing demand for meat and dairy incompatible with climate goals.
Climate change is closely linked to population growth. In high-income countries especially, each additional person causes significant emissions throughout their lifetime. High consuming lifestyles in the most affluent countries result in much higher per capita emissions than in middle- and low-income countries, where most of the world’s population lives and is projected to grow.
In contrast, people living in low-income regions still contribute very little to overall emissions but are disproportionately impacted by weather extremes and natural disasters, water stress, and food production challenges associated with a warming climate.
In the center of the spectrum are middle-income countries, home to 75% of the world’s population. In these countries, industrialization and population growth are leading to increased consumption and emissions. Without changes to how economies tend to grow, and with continued population growth, emissions will continue to rise.
The UN’s medium variant projection (their most likely scenario) shows that the global population will likely grow to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and peak around 10.4 billion in the 2080s, which will have significant consequences for our climate change mitigation and adaptation abilities.
One of the many unjust realities of the climate crisis is that those who have contributed the least to historical emissions are now the most threatened by its impacts. In addition, the most vulnerable communities have an urgent need to increase their living standards, but the processes of industrialization that have historically facilitated increases in quality of life, overall health, and economic growth in affluent nations are making it harder to achieve a sustainable future.
According to the UN, the world’s 46 least developed countries (LDCs) are among the world’s fastest-growing, and many are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050. These countries are also some of the most vulnerable to climate change, meaning the number of lives and livelihoods at risk is rapidly increasing.
9/10
Nine out of the ten countries that are facing the worst impacts of climate change are in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to double in population by 2050, accounting for half the world’s population growth between now and then. People in Chad, Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, are being hit by increasingly severe and frequent droughts, extreme heat, and soil erosion, amidst rapidly growing populations.
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25 countries, home to a quarter of the global population, are experiencing “extreme” water stress, meaning they are using at least 80% of their available freshwater supply every year. Due to population growth, by 2050, an additional 1 billion people are expected to experience extremely high water stress, even if the world limits global temperature rise this century to between 1.3°C and 2.4°C.
Rising sea levels due to ice melt pose a growing threat to the more than 10% of the global population living in low-elevation coastal zones. The World Resources Institute projects that the number of people affected by riverine and coastal flooding will double by 2030. Low-income communities are always the worst-affected by natural disasters like floods.
The countries with the fastest growing populations tend to be those with the most extreme gender inequalities. These countries, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa, have high rates of child marriage and teen pregnancy, and lack of bodily autonomy for women. As a result, fertility rates are very high, leading to rapid population growth and high poverty, which in turn make these populations particularly vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis. Many of these high fertility areas are also seeing the most extreme climate impacts, including droughts, crop failure, and natural disasters.
As there is no panacea for combating climate change, a wide variety of options needs to be exercised. An integrated approach includes educating girls and empowering women to make their own childbearing decisions.
Recent research from climate change solutions organization Project Drawdown shows that slowing population growth by removing barriers to family planning and girls’ education could prevent 68.9 gigatons of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2050, making it the third most powerful available action to limit warming to 2°C.
Empowering women and girls also accelerates sustainable development and fosters peace and security, making countries much better placed to deal with the worsening effects of climate crisis.
Investing in family planning is an extremely cost-effective climate change solution—both in terms of upfront cost and return on investment. The emissions averted through investments in family planning are also much cheaper (about $4.50 per ton of CO2) in comparison to other options such as solar power ($30 per ton) or carbon capture and storage ($60 per ton).
The UN estimates there is currently a $100 million funding gap for meeting family planning needs worldwide, which will increase to over $1 billion by 2030 without the acceleration of commitments. Increasing spending to fill the unmet need for family planning services will help address a variety of global challenges, ranging from development and human rights to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Healthy and educated populations are also better equipped to weather the effects of climate change.
Population Connection works to increase awareness of the important and complex links between population growth and climate change. We advocate for the widespread recognition of women’s empowerment as a key climate solution, alongside increased funding for international family planning as an integral part of efforts to combat the climate crisis.
Demographic trends and variables play an important role in understanding and confronting the world’s climate crisis. This resource provides a comprehensive analysis of the ways in which population growth and dynamics intersect with climate change. The brief concludes by arguing that efforts to address climate change must include increasing access to reproductive health care services, education, and voluntary family planning options.
This presentation explores population dynamics, access to comprehensive health care, and climate change. It examines links between poverty, marginalization, women’s rights, and environmental pressures made worse by climate change. The presentation concludes by showing how access to family planning and reproductive health care services is critical to women’s empowerment and can play an impactful role in climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
How much do different countries, sectors, and income groups contribute to climate change? Who are the biggest culprits? What are the top climate solutions? You might think you already know the answers to these questions, but you may be surprised. Let’s take a look at some key climate facts.
