No miracle cure: The dark side of the Green Revolution

The Green Revolution, which dramatically increased crop yields, is widely touted as proof that humanity can innovate its way out of every crisis. But this view neglects the tremendous harm caused by modern agriculture.

Infinite growth proponents

Those who believe human populations and economies can and should keep growing forever usually refer to the Green Revolution when they argue that scientific progress and ‘technofixes’ can dissolve planetary limits. This was a common narrative in many media stories marking the recent death of Population Connection co-founder and famous scientist, Paul Ehrlich, who spent his long career raising awareness of the dangers of unchecked growth.

The Green Revolution was no miracle cure for ecological overshoot, however. While it helped save millions of people from starvation, the enormous increase in agricultural production to keep pace with population and consumption growth has accelerated all our environmental crises and made our human enterprise profoundly unsustainable and susceptible to collapse.

What exactly was the Green Revolution?

The Green Revolution was a significant advancement in agricultural technology that enabled a tremendous increase in the production of food grains, especially wheat and rice, during the mid-20th century, thereby preventing catastrophic famines. Its name is derived from the green color of crop plants.

The fear that population growth would outstrip available food supplies was likely prevalent throughout human history, but nowadays it is commonly linked back to Thomas Malthus, an 18th century English cleric and economist. In his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus argued that food production increases linearly, while population increases exponentially, which eventually leads to disaster.

This concern also formed the basis of Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book The Population Bomb, which warned that humanity was on the path to mass starvation. This alarming scenario looked quite likely in the 1960s, when global population growth rates peaked and many developing countries were undergoing severe food shortages.

Norman Borlaug’s groundbreaking work

Seeking to assist impoverished farmers, American agricultural scientist Norman Borlaug began experimenting with novel strains of wheat in the 1940s, using induced genetic mutation and selective breeding techniques to create disease-resistant plants that could withstand harsh climates.

At a research station in Mexico in the 1950s, Borlaug developed short-stemmed (“dwarf”) strains of wheat that could withstand the weight of heavier heads caused by chemical fertilizer without breaking. He bred these shorter varieties with other strains he had developed earlier that were resistant to a common fungal disease called stem rust, creating extremely productive “semi-dwarf” wheat.

Borlaug’s new varieties dramatically boosted Mexican wheat production, turning the country into a net exporter. In 1963, Mexico’s wheat harvest was six times larger than 19 years earlier, when Borlaug began work there.

Hearing of this success, famine-stricken India and Pakistan also requested Borlaug’s assistance. With funding support from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Rockefeller Foundation, Borlaug’s wheat strains were imported and distributed in both countries in the mid-1960s, reducing their reliance on food aid. Over the years, these and new high-yield varieties (including of other staple crops, such as rice and maize) became available throughout the world, and dominate agriculture today.

Borlaug’s work is credited with saving hundreds of millions of people from starvation, and he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970.

No such thing as a free (or limitless) lunch

High-yield crops require enormous amounts of chemical fertilizer and pesticides, however, and there are limits to how much productivity gains selective breeding and genetic engineering can achieve. Norman Borlaug himself made it clear that he believed his innovations were just a temporary solution to avert the worst-case scenarios and give humanity “breathing space.”

“None are more keenly aware of [the Green Revolution’s] limitations than those who started it and fought for its success.”

– Norman Borlaug

Borlaug was deeply concerned about overpopulation, and his Nobel Prize acceptance speech focused heavily on the dangers of unrestricted growth. He cautioned that “the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the Green Revolution will be ephemeral only.”

Infinite growth proponents and cornucopianists who believe innovation can endlessly extend Earth’s carrying capacity completely disregard this important warning.

Nothing green about the Green Revolution

The name “Green Revolution” is a little deceptive considering the term “green” is widely used to describe something that is environmentally friendly. Unfortunately, there is nothing sustainable about modern agriculture.

In 1970, when Borlaug received his Nobel Prize, the global population stood at just under 3.7 billion. Today, it is estimated to be more than twice that size, at 8.3 billion, and is still growing. To meet increasing food demand, agricultural production has continued to boom, using ever more land, water, fertilizer, and pesticides, causing enormous amounts of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, fueling the extinction crisis, depleting soils, and compromising human health.

Habitat destruction and biodiversity loss

The global extinction crisis is still accelerating, and modern food systems are the number one driver of biodiversity loss and deforestation. Agriculture alone is contributing to the endangerment of 86% of the species that have so far been classified as at risk of extinction.

This is largely because agriculture uses almost half of all habitable land on Earth and is continuing to expand, destroying nature and the habitats wild species need to survive. Meat and dairy production are particularly problematic, using as much as 80% of all agricultural land. Nowadays, wild species make up only 5% of mammal biomass on Earth, while 59% is livestock and 36% is humans. Wild birds account for just 29% of bird biomass, while 71% is farmed poultry.

Pesticide use (see section on pollution below) has negative impacts on all groups of non-target organisms and is a major driver of insect decline — a crisis that has enormous implications for ecosystem health and food security.

Finally, agriculture contributes to biodiversity loss indirectly as well, by destroying carbon sinks and emitting greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

Climate change and fossil fuel dependence

It is now well established that food systems are responsible for up to one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture and related land use change, i.e. the conversion of natural habitats to crop production and pasture, make up most of these food system emissions (71%), while the remainder come from supply chain activities, including transport, industrial processing and packaging, and retail.

Less well-known is the fact that modern agriculture also consumes vast amounts of fossil fuels — 99% of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides are derived from fossil fuels. A 2023 report estimated that food systems account for at least 15% of global fossil fuel use.

The basis for all synthetic nitrogen fertilizers is ammonia, which is produced through the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process (named after the two scientists who developed it in the early 20th century), whereby hydrogen is separated from natural gas (methane) and sometimes coal, and mixed with nitrogen (from the air). This fertilizer production process itself generates around 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Globally, synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use has increased eight-fold since the early 1960s, in the wake of the Green Revolution. Today, an estimated 40% of all petrochemicals (chemicals made from fossil fuels) are used in food systems — primarily as synthetic fertilizers on farms (34%) and, to a lesser degree, as plastic (6%).

The fossil fuel dependence of our food systems makes them incredibly unstable and vulnerable to shocks. Spikes in the price of oil and gas trigger surges in fertilizer and food prices and put millions at risk of hunger, as we’ve repeatedly seen during times of conflict, such as, in recent times, the Russia-Ukraine war and now the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pollution

Excessive fertilizer use also leads to nitrogen pollution — globally, more than half of the nitrogen fertilizers applied to crops are lost to the environment, ending up in air, water, and soils. Humanity had already breached the planetary boundary (i.e. exceeded the safe operating space) for nitrogen by 1970. The boundary for phosphorus, another common fertilizer derived from mined phosphate rock, has also been breached.

Nitrogen dioxide, ammonia, and hydrogen sulfide emissions from manure and fertilizer production and application cause a wide range of respiratory illnesses, and can even be lethal. Nitrates from fertilizers and manure in drinking water can cause deadly “blue baby syndrome” in infants, and have been linked to cancer.

Nitrogen and phosphorus water pollution is also a major driver of biodiversity loss, via eutrophication — excess nutrient loading triggers dense and often toxic algae blooms and oxygen depletion, which is what causes aquatic dead zones.

The large-scale application of insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides to protect crops from “pests” and disease is another major source of agricultural pollution. Pesticides are either sprayed on crops or applied directly to seeds before planting. Nowadays, many widely used pesticides, such as neonicotinoids, are “systemic,” which means they are absorbed by the plant and spread to all its cells.

Global pesticide use in agriculture doubled between 1990 and 2023. Chronic pesticide exposure through air, water, and food has been linked to cancer, reproductive harm, and neurological disorders.

Water shortage

Agriculture is the most water-hungry aspect of modern society, accounting for 70% of global freshwater withdrawals. This makes our food systems the primary culprit for worsening water shortages, which are now so severe that the United Nations has declared an era of “water bankruptcy.”

Three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries already classified as water-insecure or critically water-insecure, while around half the population experiences severe water scarcity for at least one month every year. Global water demand is projected to increase by another 20% to 25% by 2050, all while the number of watersheds affected by unpredictable water supplies is expected to rise by 19%.

Land degradation and desertification

Groundwater overextraction and intensive farming practices, including monocropping, overgrazing, and excessive irrigation and fertilizer use also damage soil health, leading to erosion and loss of fertility. In arid areas, land degradation can deteriorate into desertification, whereby the soil is damaged beyond repair and the land becomes barren.

Land degradation goes hand-in-hand with the expansion of populations and agriculture. As much as 40% of the planet’s land area is already degraded, and another 100 million hectares of healthy and productive land are degraded every year. Around 1.7 billion people live in areas where land degradation is directly responsible for lower crop yields, and this figure is set to worsen.

Antibiotic and antifungal resistance

Antibiotic resistance, whereby pathogens become resistant to available antibiotic medication, is a rapidly emerging existential threat. Antibiotics are key to treating many serious diseases as well as simple infections. Due to heavy antibiotic overuse driven primarily by intensive animal agriculture, however, bacteria are increasingly evolving resistance to them. As a result, healthcare practitioners are already struggling to effectively treat illnesses that would have been easy to cure a few decades ago.

Researchers have estimated that 73% of all antibiotics sold globally are administered to farm animals. In intensive livestock farming, antibiotics are not only used to treat sick animals, but are also fed prophylactically to prevent infections, and to promote growth.

Scientists are now observing that the widespread application of fungicides to crops is also driving resistance to antifungals, which are needed to treat fungal infections in humans.

Pandemic risk

Modern agriculture also fuels epidemic and pandemic risk. The pathogens behind pandemics usually have zoonotic origins, meaning they were transferred from animals to humans. As agriculture expands, humans and their livestock are increasingly encroaching into wildlife habitat, augmenting the likelihood of viral spillovers. The overcrowded, unhealthy, and unsanitary conditions of intensive livestock farming create a high risk of viral mutations that can infect farm workers and then spread to the rest of the population.

The combination of growing pandemic risk and antibiotic resistance is especially alarming. The bubonic plague killed almost half of the European population in the 14th century because antibiotic drugs were not yet available.

The cost of continuous growth is unacceptably high

“Green growth” advocates need to stop pretending that innovation alone will save the world. As Norman Borlaug said, the Green Revolution was an emergency stopgap measure, and not intended as a long-term solution. As the devastation caused by modern agriculture clearly demonstrates, technofixes may alleviate one problem but almost always create new ones. Despite so-called “progress,” we are actually moving ever closer to catastrophic tipping points.

We already know how to farm in environmentally-friendly, regenerative, and healthy ways. The problem is that the smaller yields these methods produce cannot meet humanity’s current enormous and growing demand. Eliminating harmful subsidies, ending overconsumption of the most problematic foods such as meat and dairy, and halting global population growth are critical to achieving true sustainability in our food systems.